Nevada Independent analysis finds Trump-endorsed Republicans underperformed in Nevada's 2026 midterm races

What happened

Democrats won all six statewide offices and all four of Nevada's congressional districts in last Tuesday's election, The Nevada Independent reported. The outlet then examined voting data to test whether President Donald Trump, who had told voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," shaped the results.

According to the analysis, Republican candidates who were less tied to Trump, often because he had not endorsed them, posted the best results when measured against Nevada's partisan lean and the national environment. The same pattern showed up in the congressional districts. Several voters also told the outlet they voted specifically to rebuke Trump.

How the statewide Republican slate performed

Lombardo was the top overperformer, but still lost

Gov. Joe Lombardo was the biggest Republican overperformer in the state, helped by incumbency, name recognition and a large spending advantage, the Indy reported. He tried to keep his campaign focused on Nevada, telling supporters on Election Night, "We care about Nevada." Still, he appeared onstage with Trump at an August rally in Las Vegas, and Democrats turned his remarks there into a $150,000 ad campaign. Lombardo lost re-election.

Endorsed candidates fell short of expectations

Secretary of State candidate Jim Marchant, who tagged Trump in nearly all of his social media posts and was heavily outspent, was the single biggest underperformer on the GOP statewide slate. Attorney general nominee Adriana Guzmán Fralick, the only statewide Republican to mention Trump in ads in 2026, ran 2 percentage points behind what the political environment predicted. Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony, also endorsed by Trump, underperformed as well.

The controller race

Controller Andy Matthews, who ran without Trump's endorsement, was the only other statewide Republican to beat expectations, by 0.2 percent. He raised roughly seven times more than Controller-elect Matthew MacDougall, a Democrat whose campaign ran no ads. Matthews told the Indy, "The environment was such that I don't think it would have mattered, really," when asked whether more distance from Trump would have helped.

The congressional races

Trump endorsed three Nevada House nominees: state Sen. Carrie Buck in the 1st District, David Flippo in the 2nd and Marty O'Donnell in the 3rd. Rancher Cody Whipple was the only Republican congressional candidate in the state who ran without Trump's support. Whipple told the Indy he would have welcomed the endorsement but did not ask for it.

All four underperformed, but Flippo and O'Donnell fell further below expectations than Buck and Whipple. Buck left Trump out of her general election ads and voiced doubts about tariffs and the Iran war, while O'Donnell appeared with Trump at an October rally in Bullhead City, Arizona. Whipple did roughly as well as the other nominees despite raising less and drawing less outside spending, according to the most recent campaign finance filings cited by the outlet.

What political scientists and Republicans said

UNR political science professor Jeremy Gelman told the Indy that Trump's leadership style left incumbents little room to distance themselves, adding, "there was just no way for any of these incumbents to do that. Which is why they all lost." UNLV professor Rebecca Gill said Trump took a position on so much that he could "become an avatar for all of the things that aren't working."

One Nevada Republican politician, speaking anonymously, said, "At the very least, it didn't matter to get the Trump endorsement for the general, and at worst the Trump endorsement was harmful." For more on how the results broke down, see our look at how young voters helped shape the outcome and what comes next for Nevada Republicans.

What to watch next

• Matthew MacDougall, described by the Indy as Controller-elect, is set to take over the controller's office after a campaign that ran no ads.
• Cody Whipple, the only Nevada Republican House nominee who ran without Trump's endorsement, was not immediately available to the Indy for an interview about his results.